Climate change and weather files.

There is growing interest in how climate change will affect us. Most estimates point to a 2 to 4°C increase in mean annual temperature averaged over the planet this century. To many people, this increase seems modest, however expressing the expected change in this way fails to relay the true impact. For example, 5°C is the mean temperature difference between London and Nice in the South of France or between Bangalore and Chennai in India, so we are clearly heading for great changes in the flora and fauna around us and can expect to see new forms of architecture becoming common. In addition, the warming will not be identical across the globe, but greater over land (rather than the sea) and much greater in some locations than others. Most importantly though, statements about climate are about long-term averages and often for a whole country or region, for example, the average winter temperature in southern England. However, people don't really experience or discuss the climate, but rather focus on the weather, i.e. the short term, for example the temperature over a week, day, or just now. And often with interest only to their locality. Many natural and human-made systems, such as buildings, also respond to, or are affected by the local weather, and the growing number of simulations of the way such systems will be affected by climate change need statements not of the future climate, but of current and future local weather.

In 2003 more than 14,000 people died in a heatwave in Paris. Heat related deaths can be high even in cities accustomed to extreme heat, such as the 1,344 excess deaths attributed to the 2010 heatwave in Ahmedabad in India (a 43% increase from baseline). Such heatwaves are predicted to become more common as the atmosphere warms, indicating that ensuring that buildings and systems have been tested with future weather is an important strategy in reducing mortality and morbidity.

The projects this website links to are attempts to provide scientists, engineers, the media and the public with information about local future weather. By entering a post code (UK only) or latitude and longitude, you can download various computer files, each of which contain a year of possible local weather, now or in the future. At the moment the UK is covered (at a resolution of 5 km by 5 km) and India (at 25 km by 25 km), and hope the research community will consider adding other places.

The future of the UK's weather

The following figures show how the weather might change over the coming years, and the impact this might have on one aspect of society: the energy used in keep homes warm in winter. Each map was prepared using data from this website. The maps and the underlying data were created by Dr Chunde Liu.

This map shows just how local the UK's climate is. It shows the annual mean temperature by 2080. Note how cities are clearly visible. Although useful in showing the general situation, such annual averages mean little to people, and are do not allow the study of the stress that climate change will place on people, buildings and other aspects of society.

The typical increase in mean summertime temperature in the UK by 2080. Again, although useful for showing that even in a small country like the UK the warming will not be identical across the country, such a map fails to show the scale of the predicted change in the weather that will be experienced.

Here we see the expected maximum summer's day temperatures for a typical summer in the 2080's. These are the highest temperatures for a typical, not extreme, summer.

The data on this website can be used to help run various simulations of the future. We see the percentage reduction in gas used for heating a house by 2080. Such knowledge will be useful in setting energy policy or estimating the change in carbon emissions from the country.

Like the UK, this map of India showing the means of summer daily maxima in the 1990s illustrates the power of localization through the use of fine spatial resolution data at 25 km resolution.

That the 2080s will be dramatically hotter than the 1990s is clear here. Note, again, these are average temperatures and that peaks will be considerably higher. The free data on this website allow examination of both typical and extreme situations.